What changed
Every change to the registry and the Lab, month by month: statuses that change, new claims, predictions registered or resolved, new studies.
October 2026
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-1 · Breakdowns exist, for everyone (P-CAT)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-2 · Breakdowns get rarer with level, not milder (P-EPS)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-3 · The day dominates, and it is lopsided (P-DAY)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-5 · Within a round, arrows have no memory (P-IID)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-6 · The tail runs deeper than the bell curve (P-DEPTH)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-8 · The floor changes with the bow (P-DIV)"
- Prediction registered
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-10 · Day-to-day drift is vertical (P-DIR)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-13 · Vertical error has a ballistic component (P-VERT)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-14 · The X count measures fine centring (P-XRATE)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-15 · The quiet eye foreshadows the arrow (P-QE)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-18 · A round has a profile over time (P-TIME)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-19 · A breakdown leaves a tail of disturbance (P-REC)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-20 · Form has a short memory (P-PERS)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-22 · Growth is overestimated (P-DEV)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-23 · The first end pays an entry cost (P-WARMUP)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-24 · The day can be read early, a little (P-EARLY)"
- Prediction registered
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-27 · Pressure is a vector (P-PRESS)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-32 · The rebound is earned (P-RESIL)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-33 · Clutch is small (P-CLUTCH)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-34 · Release times have two humps (P-PANIC)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-35 · Wind has a shared part and a personal one (P-WIND)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-38 · Rain does not matter (P-RAIN)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-39 · The heartbeat window (P-HR)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-40 · Breathing writes in the vertical (P-BREATH)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-41 · Balance is projected onto the target face (P-SWAY)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-44 · Mixed practice pays off in competition (P-CI)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-46 · Overcorrection is widespread (P-CORR)"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "PAV-47 · The favourite's erosion in real brackets (P-FINAL)"
- Status changed
Automatic analysis of high-speed images puts a figure on the flexing that survives into flight, about seventy-five hertz on X10 shafts shot by a robot. Context that confirms, without shifting the status.
September 2026
- Status changed
"Balance training improves shooting accuracy" moved from Reported to Contested
Twelve weeks of Bosu balance work added to shooting, in thirty professional compound archers, take the score over fifteen arrows at 18 metres from 88.6 to 104.6, and those who improve their static balance most also gain most, with correlations between 0.49 and 0.59. It remains a single group with no control, and the spread between archers, plus or minus twenty-five points, exceeds the average gain, so some got worse. A review from the same year adds the reason to read the whole family with caution, since without a control group the reported gains reach more than thirty per cent of the score. Eight weeks of yoga raise the balance of twenty-five young women archers slightly, again with no control and with the score not among the outcomes. The before-and-after studies keep rising, while the randomised trial with a passive control in national-level archers still shows no effect: contested.
August 2026
- Status changed
The first result on archers pointing the other way arrives. In 13 young Turkish archers the most reported pain is in the back and lower back and the shoulder does not stand out; the sample is tiny and the instrument is an office ergonomics questionnaire, so it weighs little against six consistent samples and is not enough to make the picture contested, but corroborated requires nothing pointing against, and on the more cautious reading the status drops to reported. On ultrasound the supraspinatus of elite archers turns out thicker and more often eroded, which is a sign of load on the shoulder rather than a count of injuries, and it comes from a preprint that has not been peer reviewed.
- Status changed
Two studies of competitive archers arrive and point the same way. In a Brazilian crossover on a simulated 60-arrow indoor round the two halves give close averages, 218.8 and 216.0 points, while self-reported fatigue climbs from 2 to 3.8 and then to 5.8 out of ten; the study does not test that comparison, though, because its p values compare the social-media condition with the control condition. In a Turkish university group the score does not change from the first to the last of ten ends. The evidence points the claim's way, but the samples are small, the rounds simulated and short, and nearly every comparison of the halves, the only real competition included, is read without a test: it stays limited.
- Status changed
"The shoot-off arrow rewards the better archer" moved from Not studied to Reported
From international head-to-head matches comes context pointing the same way, but for the last arrow of a set rather than for the shoot-off: the higher an archer's own qualification score is against the opponent's, the better that arrow, and it is the variable that weighs most in the whole analysis. It is not the shoot-off arrow, so the status does not move.
- Status changed
Two groups of six elite Malaysian archers point the claim's way, with the high-repetition, light-load work gaining roughly twice as many points, but the two groups were never compared with each other and started eight points apart, so the finding stays context. In the same year, in eighteen young recurve archers, the time spent holding the bow in the shooting position falls just short of significance without being set beside a maximal test. Neither shifts the picture: it stays contradicted.
- Status changed
The thesis that gathers the same French work gives the form closest to the claim: through the follow-through the eight elite archers hold the middle and upper trapezius and the drawing-arm finger extensor more active than the seven intermediates. Inside the elite group, though, the link to the individual arrow still concerns the trunk and not the shoulder. The same year a Ukrainian theoretical model, with no data, describes the follow-through as the phase that holds the movement together after the release and provides the sensory feedback through which the motor programme is refined: it is a hypothesis about why the muscles stay on, not a measurement of their link to the arrows. Fifty years of measurements, and the thing coaching teaches remains an association on small samples, with two studies of the individual arrow pointing the other way: contested.
- Status changed
The thesis that takes up the eight French elite archers confirms that the string shoulder and elbow do not change between good and bad arrows, neither in the group nor in the individuals, and adds a figure worth keeping: at aim the elite archers hold the shoulder more abducted and the elbow more flexed than the intermediates, in other words a different geometry that does not turn into better arrows. The year's only support is a systematic review in a journal with doubtful editorial standards, which by our rules does not decide a status, and which leans on the same 2023 study, already counted here with its tiny correlation and its group comparison that finds nothing. That same review notes that a small deviation from the line of force is the norm. The status stays contested.
- Status changed
"Caffeine improves accuracy in archery" moved from Contradicted to Contested
The second study in archers arrives, and it points the opposite way to the first: twelve university recurve archers shoot 8.33 points per arrow after two hundred milligrams of caffeine against 6.61 in the session without, a large effect, although in three ends out of ten the difference is not significant. The design is weak, though: no placebo, no randomisation and the caffeine session always second, on a starting score so low that getting into the swing of it remains an open explanation. There are now two studies in archers and they disagree: the one with a blinded placebo, in six boys short of sleep, finds nothing; the one without a placebo, in twelve adults, finds a huge jump. Contestato.
July 2026
- Status changed
"Arrow groups widen more than in proportion to distance" moved from Not studied to Reported
Between 2019 and 2020 three new papers by the same researcher stay at the level of models. A dynamic model of flight in wind repeats that drift grows with the square of distance; the Archery Australia scoring model gives an archer scoring about 700 a group of 38.3 millimetres at seventy metres and 25.6 at fifty, a ratio of 1.5 against 1.4 for the distances, but that is an assumption built into the model; and the score curves for recurve at seventy metres and compound at fifty coincide because the model is calibrated that way. No new measurement on archers: the status stays reported.
- Status changed
"Elastic band exercises improve the score" moved from Reported to Contested
The second randomised trial on the question, and the first to isolate the bands from everything else: in twenty-four traditional archers followed for eight weeks the score does not differ between those who add the bands and those who simply shoot, even though the bands raise grip, thumb pinch and back and leg strength, while on shoulder proprioception and mobility the two groups cannot be told apart. Studies of archers point in opposite directions, and the two randomised trials split as well: the 2008 one mixes the bands with respiratory muscle work and does not publish the means, while this one reports the comparison between the groups and finds no difference. The status falls to contested.
- Status changed
"Target panic arises when the release loses its automaticity" moved from Not studied to Predicted
The Lab sets out the de-automatization hypothesis and registers seven testable predictions, still awaiting an outcome. In the same year a theoretical model published in a regional journal independently proposes a similar mechanism: the movement breaks down when conscious control returns to the final phase and execution switches from programmed to reactive, with target panic as the consequence. It is a proposal without data, like the Lab's hypothesis, so it moves nothing: until the predictions are tested, the answer is still awaited.
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "TP-1 · Co-contraction grows with the stakes"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "TP-2 · A continuous variable under a step outcome"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "TP-3 · The specificity to acts under the latency"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "TP-4 · Co-contraction bound to context, not lesion"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "TP-5 · A neural signature of de-automatization"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "TP-6 · A dissociation between interventions, by mechanism"
- Prediction registered
Prediction registered: "TP-7 · The effect is mediated by measured co-contraction"
- New study
- Status changed
"A heavier draw weight leads to higher scores" moved from Not studied to Reported
The third study on archers arrives, twenty-seven regional compound archers: a greater draw force goes with higher scores, but only by way of arrow speed, since the direct effect is nil. Within the same sample the men draw far more force than the women and score the same. Three cross-sectional associations, none of which has the same archers shoot different draw weights, do not add up to corroborated: the status stays reported.
June 2026
- Status changed
"Mental skills training improves the score" moved from Contradicted to Contested
Another randomised trial in a journal with questionable editorial standards: in thirty competitive archers in Jaipur, four weeks of imagery or self-talk raise the score by fifteen and thirteen points while the control stays put. The shooting test is not described and the tables do not match the stated design. The duration stands out, four weeks like the Greek study that found nothing, but with a venue and a report like these it is not enough to unsettle the idea that duration matters. Among studies in reliable venues the count stays at two in favour and two against, and the status remains contested.
- Status changed
The same researcher returns to the photographs of the 2013 targets with a model: at fifty metres off-centre groups cost on average between 1.35 and 2.92 points over 36 arrows depending on the division, under half a point for the top twenty men's compound archers, and the loss grows with the square of the offset. These are the same data as in 2014 and nobody has yet recorded the sight settings: the status stays reported.
- Status changed
"A lower heart rate at the moment of the shot improves the score" moved from Reported to Contested
The split widens with better data on both sides. In favour: forty-five traditional Turkish archers, where those with the lower average heart rate while shooting score higher, with a strong correlation in the women and a moderate one in the men; thirty-two Indian archers, where heart rate while aiming, at release and in the follow-through is negatively correlated with score; and fifty video clips from international competitions, where heart rate estimated from the face remains the heaviest variable alongside arm movement. Against: in the Indian study a second session with a lower heart rate gives exactly the same score. These are cross-sectional associations on one side and a within-archer comparison on the other, and the contrary result in elite archers has not been withdrawn: contested.
May 2026
- Status changed
"Archers who dwell on past mistakes shoot lower scores" moved from Reported to Contested
A Malaysian group measures the mental skills of fifty young archers with a questionnaire and finds that freedom from worry is the only one that does not set apart those who shoot better. The scale asks how much one worries about making mistakes and about others' judgement, not how much one goes back to mistakes already made, but worry about making mistakes is a close relative of dwelling on them, and this is the first finding to point the opposite way to 1986. It is weak: just six arrows, groups built by combining mental skills and score, differences shown in plots with no test, and the group's two articles report the same sample, which counts once. With one study on each side, contested.
- Status changed
"Beyond 100 arrows in a session the shoulder muscles fatigue" moved from Reported to Contested
The first result in the opposite direction arrives, and it comes from the same twenty Polish archers as the 2024 articles: after a hundred arrows the tone, stiffness and elasticity of six shoulder and forearm muscles do not change, across thirty comparisons and with no effect of time after correction, for instance posterior deltoid stiffness going from 293 to 301 newtons per metre. The mechanical properties of a muscle and the electrical signs of fatigue are not the same measure, but they answer the same question, and the same sample now points two ways: at a hundred arrows the electrical signal falls in two muscles while others compensate, yet none of the six becomes measurably different. Contested. The same study also supplies the background figure that was missing, since those archers shoot an average of a hundred and eleven arrows per session once or twice a week, which puts the claim's threshold inside ordinary training.
April 2026
- Status changed
"Mental skills training improves the score" moved from Not studied to Contradicted
The first attempt with a comparison group arrives, and finds nothing: four weeks of imagery and relaxation, eight sessions plus practice at home, in eighteen Greek archers, with two official competitions as the before and after measure. Both groups gain about fifteen points out of six hundred and the analysis of the post-test finds no difference. One study only, and it points the other way: contradicted, which is as much as a single paper can carry.
March 2026
- Status changed
"The less the bow moves while aiming, the better the shot" moved from Reported to Contested
The contrast sharpens inside a single year. Across fifty clips from international competitions, the more the drawing arm moves while aiming the lower the arrow's score, with rho of minus 0.393, while the movement of the bow arm is tied to nothing. A systematic review finds less bow sway on the better shots in three studies out of five, and no difference between levels in the other two. In twenty-seven regional compound archers, bow-arm stability turns out not to be linked to the score at fifty metres. The status stays contested, and the reason is always the same: every study measures a different thing and they all call it bow stability.
- Status changed
"Beyond 100 arrows in a session the shoulder muscles fatigue" moved from Not studied to Reported
The first study that stops at exactly a hundred arrows arrives: in twenty traditional archers the string-arm infraspinatus falls in amplitude and in median frequency, the lower trapezius produces a lower peak, and meanwhile the deltoids and upper trapezius raise their activation, which is how the body compensates. In the same year a second article on the same twenty archers, which the registry counts together with the first as a single sample, finds higher peaks in the upper and middle trapezius after a hundred arrows and the middle deltoid rising while the infraspinatus falls, and a single case shows the frequency dropping in six muscles out of eight on both sides of the body. Within the main study, though, the three parts of the trapezius and the middle deltoid show no change in frequency and the posterior deltoid raises it: supporting evidence on archers, but not clean, so reported.
February 2026
January 2026
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