Moderate cold does not lower competition scores
1 study · 3,196 archers measured
The summary today
The only data come from the heat study that followed 3,196 Chinese professional archers through 35,954 qualification performances between 2010 and 2016, comparing each archer with themselves, and that study points two ways. In the model the authors choose as their main one, which accounts for wind, days with a heat index between 14 and 18 °C and days below 14 °C cannot be told apart from the reference band of 18 to 22 °C (−0.155 and +0.051 points per arrow, not significant), while every band above 22 °C loses points clearly. In the model without the wind interaction, however, both cold bands lose 0.31 and 0.22 points per arrow, and the share of 10s falls significantly in both in the Tobit model; the authors describe the relationship between heat and performance as an inverted U. That is why the status is contested: whether moderate cold costs points depends on the model chosen. Severe cold, moreover, was never tested: the lowest heat index in the sample is 4.6 °C, only one observation in ten falls below 14 °C, and what is measured is the air, not the archer's hands.
Also phrased as: "archers shoot worse in the cold"; "winter competitions and score"; "low temperature and accuracy"; "cold hands in competition"; "cold weather costs points"
In practice
Archers say that in the cold the fingers lose feeling and the release suffers, and at winter competitions they keep their hands warm between ends.
Evidence
-
2021
For Archers Published later
35,954 qualification performances by 3,196 Chinese professional archers, competitions from 2010 to 2016, each archer compared with themselves and with weather for the competition county: against the heat-index band of 18 to 22 °C, in the main model (table 2, column II, with the heat by wind interaction) the 14-18 °C band is worth −0.155 points per arrow and the band below 14 °C +0.0511, neither significant, while every band above 22 °C is significant at the 1% level.
Adaptation and the distributional effects of heat: Evidence from professional archery competitions · Yun Qiu, Jinhua Zhao
-
2021
Against Archers Published later
In the same table, the model without the wind interaction (column I) finds both cold bands below the reference band, −0.307 points per arrow at 14-18 °C (p < 0.01) and −0.215 below 14 °C (p < 0.10); with the share of 10s as the outcome, the Tobit model (column V) gives −0.0485 and −0.0658 (p < 0.05) and the linear model (column IV) −0.0337 (p < 0.10) and −0.0474 (not significant). The heat index in the sample ranges from 4.6 to 38.6 °C and only 10% of observations fall below 14 °C.
Adaptation and the distributional effects of heat: Evidence from professional archery competitions · Yun Qiu, Jinhua Zhao
Status history
- 1990 Not studied No study in the registry's bibliography has yet compared competition scores on cold days with those on mild days.
- 2021 Contested The heat study following 3,196 Chinese professional archers also looks at the cold end of the scale, and the result depends on the model. In the main model, compared with the 18 to 22 °C band, days between 14 and 18 °C and days below 14 °C show no significant differences; without the wind interaction, however, both cold bands lose 0.31 and 0.22 points per arrow, and in the Tobit model the share of 10s falls as well. The same study therefore counts once in favour and once against, and the status is contested. The sample, moreover, has no properly cold days.
Related
Related articles
- Wind and weather conditions in archery: how to read and manage themHow far the wind moves an arrow and why, how many points it costs, how to read and correct for it, and what the data say about rain, cold and heat.
- Shooting in the heat: how many points go, who loses most and what reduces the lossHow many points heat costs in competition, where the loss begins, who loses most and what reduced it across 3,196 professional archers.
Related studies
Research lines
Cite
Campagna, M. (2026). Moderate cold does not lower competition scores (Version 2). In Evidence Registry. Retrieved 16 October 2026, from https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/moderate-cold-competition-score
@misc{campagna2026_freddopunteggio,
author = {Campagna, Matteo},
title = {Moderate cold does not lower competition scores},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {Evidence Registry, matteocampagna.com},
url = {https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/moderate-cold-competition-score},
note = {Version 2; accessed 2026-10-16}
}
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