The shoot-off arrow rewards the better archer

3 studies · 182 archers measured

Each circle is a study: its position gives the year, its row whether it is for, against or context, its size how many participants it measured. Light circles are studies on other populations or without archers.

The claim holds that the single arrow shot after a tie, such as a 5-5 draw under the set system, identifies the stronger of the two archers. An analysis of 2,210 international matches decided by a shoot-off between 2013 and 2019 gives the first answer from competition data: each extra point of set average within the same match goes with a shoot-off score 7.3% higher. What does not count is the place in the bracket: at equal performance in the match, being the higher seed adds nothing. The nuance matters, because the finding says the deciding arrow tends to reward whoever is shooting better that day rather than whoever is the better archer in general, and it measures the score of the arrow rather than who won the shoot-off. From international head-to-head matches comes context pointing the same way for the last arrow of a set, where the ratio between the two opponents' qualification scores is the variable that weighs most, but that is not the shoot-off arrow. Before the competition data there was only a model, published in 2016: from the average qualification score it calculated almost flat curves, meaning that in a single arrow even a much weaker archer keeps a reasonably good chance of winning. The Lab had calculated with a model, not with real competitions, that in the situations where a shoot-off actually happens the single arrow picks the more accurate of the two between 55.6% and 57.2% of the time: that remains a calculation, not evidence, and it points the same way as the 2016 model.

Also phrased as: "the stronger archer wins the shoot-off"; "pressure brings out the better archer"; "a shoot-off is not a lottery"; "whoever wins the shoot-off is the better archer"

In practice

It is often heard on the range that in a shoot-off the stronger archer comes through under pressure, while others see it as little more than a lottery.

Evidence

2016
Against Model Published later

A probabilistic model of the single-arrow shoot-off at 70 m on a 122 cm face, with the average qualification score as the measure of level: the curves of the probability of winning are almost flat for opponents averaging 600, 650 and 700, and according to the author even with a large difference in level the weaker archer keeps a reasonably good chance of winning the shoot-off. It is a calculation with no data from real shoot-offs and no point values, only the curves of figure 6.

Winning major international target archery competitions · James L Park
2020
For Archers Published later

World Archery competition data from 2013 to 2019, 2,210 matches decided by a shoot-off and 3,645 individual observations: each extra point of set average within the same match goes with a shoot-off score 7.3% higher (p < 0.01), about 6.5% among the men and 8.1% among the women. It is an association on the score of the arrow, not on who won the shoot-off.

Choking under pressure in archery · Alessandro Bucciol, Alessandro Castagnetti
2020
Context Archers Published later

The same sample: at equal performance in the match, being higher in the bracket does not give a better shoot-off. The coefficient for the higher ranking is 0.006 with a standard error of 0.010 and the seeding difference is -0.001 with a standard error of 0.002, neither of them significant. Same study as the supporting item, so it counts only once.

Choking under pressure in archery · Alessandro Bucciol, Alessandro Castagnetti
2024
Context Archers Published later

International elite recurve head-to-head matches, a regression on the last arrow of the set: the ratio between an archer's own qualification score and the opponent's has a coefficient of 0.41 (interval 0.337 to 0.483; t = 11.01; p < 0.0001). It concerns the last arrow of the set, not the shoot-off arrow.

Gender differences in skilled performance under failure competitive environments: evidence from elite archers · Chunhua Li, Yangqing Zhao
2024
Context Archers Published later

In the same analysis the relative standard of the two opponents is the variable that weighs most of all those considered. The ratio between the qualification scores is close to one in almost every match, though, 1.002 ± 0.057 over a range from 0.648 to 1.543, so the effect is estimated across small differences. Same study as the previous item.

Gender differences in skilled performance under failure competitive environments: evidence from elite archers · Chunhua Li, Yangqing Zhao

Status history

2010 Not studied With the set system, individual recurve matches that end 5-5 are decided by one arrow each, and the registry's bibliography holds no study on archers measuring how often that arrow rewards the better archer.
2016 Contradicted The first work to look at the shoot-off arrow is a model rather than a measurement: calculating the probability of winning it at seventy metres from the average qualification score, the curves come out almost flat, and the author concludes that even with a large difference in level the weaker archer keeps a reasonably good chance of winning. It is the only evidence of the year, it goes against the claim and it is indirect, since it uses no real shoot-offs: contradicted.
2020 Reported World competition data answer for the first time: across 2,210 matches decided by a shoot-off between 2013 and 2019, each extra point of set average within the same match goes with a shoot-off score 7.3% higher, while being higher in the bracket adds nothing at equal performance in the match. Whoever is shooting better that day tends to win the deciding arrow, but this is one study and an association: reported. The 2016 model, which gave the shoot-off an outcome close to chance, remains a calculation and carries less weight than competition data.
2024 Reported From international head-to-head matches comes context pointing the same way, but for the last arrow of a set rather than for the shoot-off: the higher an archer's own qualification score is against the opponent's, the better that arrow, and it is the variable that weighs most in the whole analysis. It is not the shoot-off arrow, so the status does not move.

Related studies

Research lines

Studies describe groups of archers, and your own numbers show how far the finding applies to your shooting.

See the work with clubs and federations

Cite

APA

Campagna, M. (2026). The shoot-off arrow rewards the better archer (Version 3). In Evidence Registry. Retrieved 16 October 2026, from https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/shoot-off-rewards-better-archer

BibTeX

@misc{campagna2026_spareggiopiubravo,
  author = {Campagna, Matteo},
  title = {The shoot-off arrow rewards the better archer},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Evidence Registry, matteocampagna.com},
  url = {https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/shoot-off-rewards-better-archer},
  note = {Version 3; accessed 2026-10-16}
}

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