After a good end it is easier to shoot another good one

3 studies · 3,648 archers measured

Each circle is a study: its position gives the year, its row whether it is for, against or context, its size how many participants it measured. Light circles are studies on other populations or without archers.

The two measurements available look at the same idea from different distances and do not agree. Counting the ends of a whole season in three top Brazilian archers, an optimal end, meaning one in the best third of that archer's ends, is not followed by another optimal one in 67 to 74 per cent of cases: the next end comes off roughly one time in three, which is what you would expect if the previous end made no difference, and runs of three optimal ends in a row stay rare. Looking instead at the individual arrows of 6,374 sets in Olympic and world-level head-to-head matches, there is a streak, but it shows mostly on the side of the misses: after two arrows outside the ten the third is worth 12.2 per cent less than after two tens, and a single miss among the first two is enough to pull it down a little. The first figure comes from three people, and the authors warn that what they count is the emotional state linked to optimal ends rather than the score itself; the second sits inside a set of three arrows, where the archer also knows how the match is going, so the streak and the pressure of the score cannot be separated. Nobody has yet counted whole ends across many archers.

Also phrased as: "hot hand in archery"; "momentum in competition"; "points bring points"; "good arrows in a row"; "streak effect"

In practice

The saying goes that points bring points: after a good end the archer is loose and confident and the next one almost shoots itself, while a bad end tends to drag another behind it.

Evidence

2008
Against Archers Published later

3 top Brazilian archers followed for a season, with each end classed by their own scores (optimal meaning above the 66th percentile): an optimal end is not followed by another optimal one in 67.6, 74.3 and 67.3 per cent of cases, and only 9 to 16 per cent of the season's shots fall in runs of three or more optimal ends. The authors conclude that an optimal end does not raise the chance of the next one, and point out that they are counting the emotional and physiological states linked to the optimal zone, not performance as such.

Affective and Physiological States during Archery Competitions: Adopting and Enhancing the Probabilistic Methodology of Individual Affect-Related Performance Zones (IAPZs) · Edson Soares Medeiros Filho, Luiz Carlos Moraes, Gershon Tenenbaum
2008
Context Archers Published later

The same three archers, 99, 70 and 101 sequences counted over a season: three optimal ends in a row in 8.1, 10.0 and 11.9 per cent of cases, four in a row in one archer only (4.0 per cent), five in a row in 1.1 and 1.0 per cent. Even in top archers long good runs are rare.

Affective and Physiological States during Archery Competitions: Adopting and Enhancing the Probabilistic Methodology of Individual Affect-Related Performance Zones (IAPZs) · Edson Soares Medeiros Filho, Luiz Carlos Moraes, Gershon Tenenbaum
2020
Context Archers Published later

International federation competition data from 2013 to 2019, 2,210 matches decided by a shoot-off, 2,095 men and 1,550 women, with athlete fixed effects: having won the fifth set, and so having come back to force the shoot-off, is worth +1.8 per cent on the shoot-off score for women (p < 0.01), -1.0 per cent for men (p < 0.1) and +0.2 per cent, not significant, across the whole sample. The score of the fifth set itself makes no difference (-0.003).

Choking under pressure in archery · Alessandro Bucciol, Alessandro Castagnetti
2024
For Archers Published later

Individual elite recurve head-to-head matches, Olympic Games from 2012 to 2020, the 2021 World Championships and a 2021 Grand Prix: 6,374 sets of three arrows, 19,122 arrows, Poisson regression allowing for the level of both archers. After two arrows outside the ten the score of the third is 12.2 per cent lower than after two tens (eβ = 0.878, interval 0.86 to 0.90, p < 0.001). These are arrows within the same set, not whole ends.

Gender differences in skilled performance under failure competitive environments: evidence from elite archers · Chunhua Li, Yangqing Zhao
2024
For Archers Published later

The same model shows a gradient: compared with two tens in a row, a ten followed by a miss pulls the third arrow down (β = -0.089, p < 0.001), a miss followed by a ten does too (β = -0.075, p < 0.001), and two misses more so (β = -0.131). The drop grows with the number of misses, which is the mark of a streak; but within a set the archer also knows how the match is going, and the streak cannot be separated from the pressure of the score.

Gender differences in skilled performance under failure competitive environments: evidence from elite archers · Chunhua Li, Yangqing Zhao

Status history

2008 Contradicted The first count comes from three top Brazilian archers followed through a whole season, with each end classed as poor, moderate or optimal according to their own scores. An optimal end is not followed by another optimal one in 67.6, 74.3 and 67.3 per cent of cases, and only between 9 and 16 per cent of the season's shots fall in runs of three or more optimal ends: the authors conclude that an optimal end does not make the next one more likely. The authors warn that they count the emotional state linked to optimal ends rather than the score. It is a single study, of three people, and it runs against the claim: contradicted.
2020 Contradicted An analysis of every international federation match from 2013 to 2019 that went to a shoot-off looks at one particular form of momentum: reaching the shoot-off arrow after winning the fifth set. Women who get there that way shoot 1.8 per cent better, men 1.0 per cent worse, and across the whole sample there is nothing. It concerns the momentum of a set won rather than the quality of the previous end, and it runs in two different directions depending on sex: it does not change the picture, which remains that of 2008.
2024 Contested On head-to-head data from three Olympic Games, the World Championships and a Grand Prix, 6,374 sets of three arrows, the count turns around: after two arrows outside the ten the third is worth 12.2 per cent less than after two tens, and even a single miss among the first two pulls it down, by less. It is a streak, but read from the side of the misses and across arrows within a set rather than whole ends, in a setting where the archer knows how the match is going. There are now studies of archers pointing in opposite directions, one small and one large but indirect: contested.

Repeatability and consistency: measuring the steadiness of your shotHow repeatable an archer's shot is: what studies say about level, good and bad days, arrows outside the 10, and how to measure consistency on the range.

Related studies

Theoretical workIl pavimento (The floor): how much of archery is real

Research lines

Cite

APA

Campagna, M. (2026). After a good end it is easier to shoot another good one (Version 2). In Evidence Registry. Retrieved 16 October 2026, from https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/mind/good-end-after-good-end

BibTeX

@misc{campagna2026_seriebuonadopobuona,
  author = {Campagna, Matteo},
  title = {After a good end it is easier to shoot another good one},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Evidence Registry, matteocampagna.com},
  url = {https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/mind/good-end-after-good-end},
  note = {Version 2; accessed 2026-10-16}
}

Follow this claim

RSS feed for this claim

RSS is an address you paste into a feed reader: each time this claim changes status, adds a year to its history or is revised, a new item appears there.

Other claims in this domain

See all claims on mind and attention