Even in competition at the highest level, most arrows are not tens

The summary today

Three independent counts, two of them very large, say the same thing from different angles. In Chinese professional competitions one arrow in five lands in the ten, 20.7 per cent, and the mean score per arrow is 7.91. In international head-to-head matches, across 6,374 three-arrow series, only in thirteen per cent of cases are the first two arrows both tens, while in almost half they are both outside, and the last arrow of the series is worth 8.25 on average. In eight high-level French archers, 549 arrows at seventy metres, tens make up 30.2 per cent and arrows of eight or less 29.7. The share of tens varies a great deal from one study to another, and it varies within the same group too, from seven out of seventy-two to thirty-two out of seventy-two. There is a physical reason: indoors and with no wind, at fifty-five metres, the vertical standard deviation of a competitive archer filmed at high speed is just over ten centimetres, and the ten at seventy metres is a circle of 12.2 centimetres, so the group is already as wide as the ring it is trying to hit. The ten, at any level, cannot be repeated at will.

Also phrased as: "at that level they all shoot tens"; "how many arrows are tens in competition"; "percentage of tens among elite archers"; "the ten is not guaranteed"; "what an arrow is worth on average in competition"

Evidence

• 2021
  For Archers Published later

  3,196 Chinese professional archers, 460 events across 57 competitions between 2010 and 2016, outdoor qualifying rounds: the mean score per arrow is 7.91 and 20.7 per cent of arrows land in the ten ring. It is the largest count in the bibliography, but it covers a single federation and only qualifying rounds. The figures come from the working paper deposited on SSRN: the published version is not open access and may differ.

  Adaptation and the distributional effects of heat: Evidence from professional archery competitions · Yun Qiu, Jinhua Zhao

• 2022
  Context Archers Published later

  One archer, 36 shots with two arrows of the same model indoors at fifty-five metres with no wind, filmed at high speed: the vertical standard deviation on the target is 107 and 108 millimetres, with mean launch speeds of 59.67 and 59.21 metres per second. The ten at seventy metres is 122 millimetres across, so the spread is already as wide as the ring. One archer and laboratory conditions: it gives the physical reason, not the count.

  Automatic image analysis of an archery arrow in free flight using high-speed video cameras · Riku Murakami, Hiroya Mamori, Takeshi Miyazaki, Naoya Takahashi

• 2024
  For Archers Published later

  6,374 three-arrow series (19,122 arrows) in individual recurve head-to-head matches at the Games from 2012 to 2020, the 2021 World Championships and the 2021 European Grand Prix, taken from official results: two tens in a row on the first two arrows in 827 series (13.0 per cent), a ten then a non-ten in 1,753, a non-ten then a ten in 675, and two arrows outside the ten in 3,119 (48.9 per cent). There are 3,380 men's series and 2,994 women's.

  Gender differences in skilled performance under failure competitive environments: evidence from elite archers · Chunhua Li, Yangqing Zhao

• 2024
  Context Archers Published later

  From the same count, the mean value of the last arrow of the set: 8.25 points, median 9, standard deviation 1.468, from 0 to 10, across 6,374 series. It gives the order of magnitude of what an arrow is worth when it counts, and it is not a ten.

  Gender differences in skilled performance under failure competitive environments: evidence from elite archers · Chunhua Li, Yangqing Zhao

• 2025
  For Archers Published later

  Eight high-level French archers with their own Olympic recurve bows, eight ends of nine arrows at seventy metres outdoors, 549 arrows analysed: 166 worth ten points (30.2 per cent), 220 worth nine (40.1) and 163 worth eight or less (29.7). Per archer the tens run from seven out of seventy-two to thirty-two out of seventy-two, and arrows of eight or less from twelve to thirty-six: the share of tens varies a great deal even inside a group like this.

  A multi-parameter investigation of elite archery: distinguishing individual and shared performance strategies during the aiming and follow-through phases · Raphaël Jacquot, Khaireddine Ben Mansour, Kévin Bouillet, Jean-Philippe Jehl, Gérôme Gauchard

• 2026
  For Archers Published later

  The doctoral thesis that contains the 2025 study reports the same count, on the same eight high-level French archers and the same arrows, eight ends of nine at seventy metres: 166 tens, 220 nines and 163 arrows of eight or less out of 549, with each archer's tens running from 7 to 32 out of about 72. These are the same data as the article and count only once.

  Analyse multidimensionnelle de la performance en tir à l'arc · Raphaël Jacquot

Status history

1. 2021 Reported The first large-scale count comes from a panel of Chinese professional competitions: one arrow in five lands in the ten, 20.7 per cent, and the mean score per arrow is 7.91 across 460 events. It is a single count, in a single federation, so reported.
2. 2022 Reported The year after comes the physical reason, from a laboratory measurement: indoors and with no wind, a competitive archer shooting 36 arrows at fifty-five metres shows a vertical standard deviation of just over ten centimetres, while the ten at seventy metres is a circle of 12.2 centimetres. It explains why the share of tens sits where it does, but it is one archer in laboratory conditions: the status does not move.
3. 2024 Corroborated A second independent group counts 6,374 three-arrow series in international head-to-head matches between 2012 and 2021: only in thirteen per cent of sets are the first two arrows both tens, while in almost half they are both outside, and the last arrow of the series is worth 8.25 on average. Two large, independent and agreeing counts on archers: the status rises to corroborated.
4. 2025 Corroborated A third sample, eight high-level French archers and 549 arrows at seventy metres, gives 30.2 per cent tens and 29.7 per cent arrows of eight or less. The figure is higher than in the professional competitions, because distance, target face and format differ, but the direction is the same and the status holds. This sample also shows how much the share of tens varies between archers in the same group.

Related

Related articles

• On a level score, counting tens rewards the weaker archerCounting tens breaks ties in archery, yet it reverses exactly where it is used: in the model, on level totals, it picks the better archer 44.7 times in 100.
• I scored more and lost: how the set system worksSince 2010 a match has been decided by sets, not by adding up arrows. How it works, how often the lower total wins, and why it happens mostly between equals.
• Archery distances, target faces and how arrows are scoredDistances, faces and scoring in World Archery and FITARCO target archery and IFAA and FIARC field archery: zones, the line, ties and shoot-offs.

Research lines

• 48 studiesWhat predicts the score, and how talent selection tried to use it
• 102 studiesFrom the total on the scorecard to the arrow's coordinates

Other claims in this domain

• CorroboratedAbout 150 points on a FITA round separate a club archer from a national-team archer13 studies · 492 archers measuredStatus since 2003
• CorroboratedAn archer's arousal rises with what is at stake, and keeps rising as the competition goes on3 studies · 23 archers measuredStatus since 2011
• CorroboratedArchers are more aroused in competition than in training5 studies · 50 archers measuredStatus since 2025
• CorroboratedAt 70 metres a top archer averages about nine points per arrow7 studies · 72 archers measuredStatus since 2012
• CorroboratedIn studies of competitive archers the mean score per arrow sits around seven points, not nine11 studies · 268 archers measuredStatus since 2026

See all claims on competition and scoring