Medals almost always go to archers who finish the qualification round in the first 20

The summary today

Two analyses of international results point the same way. The first, on one World Cup stage and the 2013 World Championships, counts who reaches the medal finals and finds that almost nobody does without having finished qualification inside the top twenty; that year twentieth place was worth 1320 points out of 1440 in men's recurve and 695 out of 720 in men's compound. The second, by the same author, looks at all 182 major competitions from 2000 to 2014 and finds that gold went to an archer in the top 16 of qualification in 90 per cent of cases, and in the top 8 in three competitions out of four. A later review translates the threshold into points per arrow on the 72-arrow format, about 9.2 in men's recurve and 9.7 in compound, although these are the author's estimates. The figures come from a single author, on partly overlapping data, and from competition formats that have changed in the meantime, so the threshold of twenty is best read as an order of magnitude rather than an exact line.

Also phrased as: "the qualification round decides who can win"; "no medal without a good qualification"; "what qualification score do you need for a medal"; "qualification placing and medals"

Evidence

• 2014
  For Archers Published later

  Results from the first 2013 World Cup stage in Shanghai and the World Championships in Belek: almost nobody reaches the medal finals without finishing qualification inside the top twenty. Twentieth place was worth 1320 points out of 1440 in men's recurve and 1325 in the women's event, 695 out of 720 in men's compound and 675 in the women's.

  Analysis of scores and arrow grouping at major international archery competitions · James L Park, James E Larven

• 2014
  Context Archers Published later

  The same study sets the twentieth-place scores against the 72-arrow format at 70 m: the same levels would correspond to about 660 points for the men and 646 for the women. This is a conversion between formats rather than a new measurement, and it comes from the same data as the previous item.

  Analysis of scores and arrow grouping at major international archery competitions · James L Park, James E Larven

• 2016
  For Archers Published later

  Every major international target archery competition from 2000 to 2014, 182 in all across recurve and compound, men and women, including 35 World Cup stages, 7 World Championships and 4 Olympic Games in recurve: the winner had finished qualification in the top 8 in 76 per cent of competitions, in the top 4 in 54 per cent and in the top 16 in 90 per cent. It counts gold rather than every medal, which makes it a stricter test than the threshold of twenty.

  Winning major international target archery competitions · James L Park

• 2016
  For Archers Published later

  In the same study a model that uses the qualification score as the measure of level calculates the probability of winning the competition: it falls exponentially with ranking place, with a constant between 4.56 and 5.96 places depending on division and sex (2012 Olympics for recurve, 2011 World Championships for compound). Averaged over the four categories, the calculated probability of winning is 0.76 for archers ranked first to eighth and 0.18 for those ranked ninth to sixteenth, in line with the actual results. Same study as the previous item.

  Winning major international target archery competitions · James L Park

• 2016
  Context Archers Published later

  In compound the bye through the early rounds for the top eight is worth little: at the 2011 World Championships the eighth-ranked archer would have had probabilities of 0.99 and 0.89 of beating the 121st and the 57th, and the advantage of the bye stops at 12 per cent. It concerns the bracket format rather than the medal threshold.

  Winning major international target archery competitions · James L Park

• 2019
  Context Review Published later

  A review of target archery: a reasonable chance of a medal would call for about 665 points out of 720 in men's recurve, that is 9.2 per arrow, and about 700 in compound, that is 9.7. These are the author's estimates from international results, not an analysis of placings.

  The impact of the atmosphere on target archery · James L Park

Status history

1. 2014 Reported The first analysis to link qualification placing to medals: across one World Cup stage and the 2013 World Championships, almost nobody reaches the medal finals without finishing inside the top twenty, and that twentieth place was worth 1320 points out of 1440 in men's recurve and 695 out of 720 in men's compound. These are real competition data and the direction is clear, but it is a single analysis of two events in one season, so reported.
2. 2016 Reported The count across fifteen seasons arrives: in all 182 major international competitions from 2000 to 2014, gold went to an archer who had finished qualification in the top 16 in 90 per cent of cases, and in the top 8 in three competitions out of four. It points the same way as the 2014 analysis with a stricter count, since it looks at gold rather than at every medal final. It is, though, the same author, and the two 2013 events fall inside the larger sample: two readings by the same researcher on overlapping data, and the status stays reported.
3. 2019 Reported A review of target archery translates the threshold into a score on the 72-arrow format: about 665 points out of 720 in men's recurve, that is 9.2 per arrow, and about 700 in compound, that is 9.7. These are the author's estimates from international results rather than a fresh count, so they add a useful figure without changing the status.

Related

Related articles

• The top qualifier is the best archer once in sevenIn a simulated top-level field the top qualifier is the best archer 14.2 times in 100. Yet at the major events analysed, gold mostly went to a top-16 qualifier.
• Head-to-head matches and qualification: how much more pressure, and what it costs the arrowsBefore head-to-head matches, national squad archers are more anxious than before qualification. What it costs the arrows, and why matches produce upsets.
• Types of archery competition: target, indoor, field and 3DTarget, indoor, field and 3D in archery's two worlds, FITARCO and World Archery, FIARC and IFAA: distances, targets, arrows and scoring from the official rulebooks.

Research lines

• 32 studiesArrow aerodynamics: drag, boundary layer, vanes
• 21 studiesDistance, group size and score

Other claims in this domain

• CorroboratedAbout 150 points on a FITA round separate a club archer from a national-team archer13 studies · 492 archers measuredStatus since 2003
• CorroboratedAn archer's arousal rises with what is at stake, and keeps rising as the competition goes on3 studies · 23 archers measuredStatus since 2011
• CorroboratedArchers are more aroused in competition than in training5 studies · 50 archers measuredStatus since 2025
• CorroboratedAt 70 metres a top archer averages about nine points per arrow7 studies · 72 archers measuredStatus since 2012
• CorroboratedEven in competition at the highest level, most arrows are not tens4 studies · 3,212 archers measuredStatus since 2024

See all claims on competition and scoring