In a match the first set is shot slightly lower than the second
1 study · 3,645 archers measured
The summary today
A single study, but on real competition data and with each archer compared with themselves: 3,645 performances by adult archers, three quarters of them recurve and the rest compound, in World Archery matches from 2013 to 2019 that went to a shoot-off. Compared with the first set, scores rise by 0.3 per cent in the second (p < 0.05) and by the same amount in the third, where the difference is only borderline (p < 0.1); in the fourth and fifth they return to where they were, with small differences that are not significant (minus 0.2 and minus 0.1 per cent). Widening the sample to all matches that ended in five sets, 19,838 performances, the shape is the same: an average of 9.138 in the first set, 9.151 and 9.155 in the second and third, then 9.145 and 9.122. The first set, then, is lower than the second, and perhaps the third, rather than all the ones that follow, and the gap is measured in hundredths of a point per arrow. Why it happens the study does not say: warm-up, early tension or simply settling in are possible readings that nobody has separated.
Also phrased as: "the first set is a warm-up"; "you always start slowly in a match"; "settling into the match"; "slow start in head-to-head matches"
In practice
It is said that the first set is where an archer settles into the match, with the body still cold and the tension of the start, and that the real scoring comes from the second set on.
Evidence
-
2020
For Archers Published later
World Archery data from 2013 to 2019, adult recurve and compound divisions (about 74 per cent recurve), 2,210 matches that ended in a shoot-off and 3,645 performances by archers observed in at least two matches: in an OLS model with archer and match fixed effects, on 21,870 observations, scores are 0.3 per cent higher than in the first set in the second (p < 0.05) and in the third, there only borderline (p < 0.1), while the fourth (minus 0.2 per cent) and the fifth (minus 0.1) do not differ significantly. In the shoot-off scores fall by 1.1 per cent (p < 0.001). In compound the match is not played in sets, and the five three-arrow ends are added up.
Choking under pressure in archery · Alessandro Bucciol, Alessandro Castagnetti
-
2020
Context Archers Published later
Widening the sample to all matches that ended in five sets, including those that did not reach a shoot-off, that is 19,838 individual performances, the shape is the same: an average per arrow of 9.138 in the first set, 9.151 in the second, 9.155 in the third, 9.145 in the fourth and 9.122 in the fifth, with no significant difference in the pattern compared with matches that went to a shoot-off. On average the fifth set is in fact lower than the first in these data, but that comparison has no test.
Choking under pressure in archery · Alessandro Bucciol, Alessandro Castagnetti
Status history
- 2020 Reported A single study, but on real competition data and with each archer compared with themselves: in international matches that went to a shoot-off, scores rise by 0.3 per cent from the first to the second set and stay higher in the third, though there only borderline, then in the fourth and fifth they return to where they were. The same shape appears in the nearly twenty thousand performances from matches that ended in five sets. The first set is lower than the second, which is what the claim says, while the third is only borderline and the last two are no higher; with a single study the evidence remains limited.
Related
Related articles
- I scored more and lost: how the set system worksSince 2010 a match has been decided by sets, not by adding up arrows. How it works, how often the lower total wins, and why it happens mostly between equals.
- The first arrow of the end: does it score more than the others, and should you shoot it straight away?Does the first arrow of an end score more than the others? Two studies disagree, and on shooting out of breath the evidence gives no answer yet.
- Warming up before shooting: what static stretching, dynamic stretching and foam rolling changeStatic stretching, dynamic stretching or foam rolling before you shoot: what studies on archers measured, how much it moves the score and where the data stop.
Research lines
Cite
Campagna, M. (2026). In a match the first set is shot slightly lower than the second (Version 2). In Evidence Registry. Retrieved 16 October 2026, from https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/first-set-scores-lower
@misc{campagna2026_primosetpiubasso,
author = {Campagna, Matteo},
title = {In a match the first set is shot slightly lower than the second},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {Evidence Registry, matteocampagna.com},
url = {https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/first-set-scores-lower},
note = {Version 2; accessed 2026-10-16}
}
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