On the shoot-off arrow archers score less than in the rest of the match

The summary today

An analysis of 2,210 international matches that went to a shoot-off between 2013 and 2019 compares each archer with himself and finds the deciding arrow worth 1.1% less than that archer's average in the first set of the same match. The drop does not hang on a few disastrous arrows: it survives trimming the lowest 5% of shoot-off scores and grows, to 1.9%, when medians are used instead of means. The numbers are small because at this level archers sit just above the 9, 9.148 points in the sets and 9.088 on the shoot-off, and the drop is sharper in recurve than in compound. The design fits the question and the data come from real competitions, but this is one study, on one circuit and over seven years, and it measures the ring value rather than where the arrow lands.

Also phrased as: "the shoot-off arrow is the hardest one"; "archers score less on the shoot-off"; "scores drop on the deciding arrow"; "shoot-off and performance drop"

Evidence

• 2019
  Context Archers Published later

  19 experienced archers from Hong Kong, 7.4 years of practice on average, in a simulated single-arrow shoot-off at 18 m with two minutes of waiting and fifteen seconds to shoot: mean distance from the centre between 4.01 ± 3.27 and 5.58 ± 3.37 cm across the four measurements. It shows where the arrow lands, not whether it is worth less than the arrows of the match, and the journal has questionable editorial standards.

  Effects of a Single-Dose of Mind-Body Practice on the Heart Rate Variability, Brain Activity and Shooting Performance in Archers: A Pilot Study Questionable venue · Peter X. L. Li, Chung S. C. Chan, Kenneth K. Y. Lai, Jennifer P. C. Wong, William W. N. Tsang

• 2020
  For Archers Published later

  World Archery competition data from 2013 to 2019, 2,210 matches decided by a shoot-off and 21,870 set and shoot-off observations: the shoot-off arrow scores 1.1% lower than the first-set average of the same match (p < 0.001), while the second set is 0.3% higher (p < 0.05) and the fourth and fifth are indistinguishable. The comparison is within the same archer.

  Choking under pressure in archery · Alessandro Bucciol, Alessandro Castagnetti

• 2020
  Context Archers Published later

  The same sample read in absolute terms: 9.148 ± 0.488 points per arrow in the sets and 9.088 ± 1.011 on the shoot-off arrow, with an observed minimum of 6.667 in the sets and of 1 on the shoot-off. That is 3,645 individual observations, 2,210 matches and 120 competitions.

  Choking under pressure in archery · Alessandro Bucciol, Alessandro Castagnetti

• 2020
  Context Archers Published later

  Robustness checks from the same study: trimming the lowest 5% of shoot-off scores leaves the world-event effect at -0.008 (p < 0.05), and using median set scores instead of means raises the shoot-off drop to -1.9% (p < 0.01), with a median of 9.106 on the shoot-off against 9.249 in the first set.

  Choking under pressure in archery · Alessandro Bucciol, Alessandro Castagnetti

• 2020
  Context Archers Published later

  In the same sample the drop on the deciding arrow is sharper in recurve than in compound: -8.1% overall (significant only at the 10% level), -3.2% among the men and -16.1% among the women (p < 0.05), with recurve making up 73.7% of the matches.

  Choking under pressure in archery · Alessandro Bucciol, Alessandro Castagnetti

Status history

1. 2019 Not studied The first thing measured on a shoot-off arrow is only where it lands: in a simulated shoot-off at eighteen metres, with two minutes of waiting on the line and fifteen seconds to shoot, nineteen experienced archers group between four and five and a half centimetres from the centre. The comparison with the arrows of the match, which is the question, is missing, so not studied.
2. 2020 Reported The comparison arrives, on real competition data: across 2,210 international matches decided by a shoot-off between 2013 and 2019, the deciding arrow is worth 1.1% less than the first-set average of the same match, and the drop survives trimming the lowest 5% of scores and grows when medians are used. A clear direction and a design that fits, but one study only: reported.

Related

Related articles

• Choking in archery: how common it is, who it happens to and what goes with itHow many archers say they fall apart in competition, what those who choke most often have in common, and how much pressure costs on measured scores.
• Five-all in archery: why it happens, and to whomOne match in five between equals ends five-all, and not by chance: it happens to archers who are alike. How often, where in the bracket and why.
• The shoot-off in archery: what one arrow decidesHow the shoot-off works after a five-all, how often it picks the more precise archer (55 to 57 times in 100) and what that arrow is worth in competition.

Research lines

• 7 studiesThe arrow that decides
• 52 studiesMental training: what has been tested on archers since 1979

Other claims in this domain

• CorroboratedAbout 150 points on a FITA round separate a club archer from a national-team archer13 studies · 492 archers measuredStatus since 2003
• CorroboratedAn archer's arousal rises with what is at stake, and keeps rising as the competition goes on3 studies · 23 archers measuredStatus since 2011
• CorroboratedArchers are more aroused in competition than in training5 studies · 50 archers measuredStatus since 2025
• CorroboratedAt 70 metres a top archer averages about nine points per arrow7 studies · 72 archers measuredStatus since 2012
• CorroboratedEven in competition at the highest level, most arrows are not tens4 studies · 3,212 archers measuredStatus since 2024

See all claims on competition and scoring