https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/shoot-off-rewards-better-archer Changes to this claim in Matteo Campagna's evidence registry: its status, its year-by-year history, revisions of the page. en-gb https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/shoot-off-rewards-better-archerThe claim holds that the single arrow shot after a tie, such as a 5-5 draw under the set system, identifies the stronger of the two archers. An analysis of 2,210 international matches decided by a shoot-off between 2013 and 2019 gives the first answer from competition data: each extra point of set average within the same match goes with a shoot-off score 7.3% higher. What does not count is the place in the bracket: at equal performance in the match, being the higher seed adds nothing. The nuance matters, because the finding says the deciding arrow tends to reward whoever is shooting better that day rather than whoever is the better archer in general, and it measures the score of the arrow rather than who won the shoot-off. From international head-to-head matches comes context pointing the same way for the last arrow of a set, where the ratio between the two opponents' qualification scores is the variable that weighs most, but that is not the shoot-off arrow. Before the competition data there was only a model, published in 2016: from the average qualification score it calculated almost flat curves, meaning that in a single arrow even a much weaker archer keeps a reasonably good chance of winning. The Lab had calculated with a model, not with real competitions, that in the situations where a shoot-off actually happens the single arrow picks the more accurate of the two between 55.6% and 57.2% of the time: that remains a calculation, not evidence, and it points the same way as the 2016 model.claim:spareggio-piu-bravo:revision:2026-10-05:3Mon, 05 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMT https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/shoot-off-rewards-better-archer#storiaWorld competition data answer for the first time: across 2,210 matches decided by a shoot-off between 2013 and 2019, each extra point of set average within the same match goes with a shoot-off score 7.3% higher, while being higher in the bracket adds nothing at equal performance in the match. Whoever is shooting better that day tends to win the deciding arrow, but this is one study and an association: reported. The 2016 model, which gave the shoot-off an outcome close to chance, remains a calculation and carries less weight than competition data.claim:spareggio-piu-bravo:history_entry:2026-09-15:2020Tue, 15 Sep 2026 08:00:00 GMT https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/shoot-off-rewards-better-archer#storiaThe first work to look at the shoot-off arrow is a model rather than a measurement: calculating the probability of winning it at seventy metres from the average qualification score, the curves come out almost flat, and the author concludes that even with a large difference in level the weaker archer keeps a reasonably good chance of winning. It is the only evidence of the year, it goes against the claim and it is indirect, since it uses no real shoot-offs: contradicted.claim:spareggio-piu-bravo:history_entry:2026-09-15:2016Tue, 15 Sep 2026 08:00:00 GMT https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/shoot-off-rewards-better-archer#storiaFrom international head-to-head matches comes context pointing the same way, but for the last arrow of a set rather than for the shoot-off: the higher an archer's own qualification score is against the opponent's, the better that arrow, and it is the variable that weighs most in the whole analysis. It is not the shoot-off arrow, so the status does not move.claim:spareggio-piu-bravo:status_change:2026-08-15:riportatoSat, 15 Aug 2026 08:00:00 GMT https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/shoot-off-rewards-better-archerclaim:spareggio-piu-bravo:new_claim:2026-07-15:non_studiatoWed, 15 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMT