https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/upsets-head-to-head-matches Changes to this claim in Matteo Campagna's evidence registry: its status, its year-by-year history, revisions of the page. en-gb https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/upsets-head-to-head-matchesThat upsets cluster between archers of similar level is more an expected consequence of the format than a measured result. A match is decided over far fewer arrows than the qualification round, and when the two levels are alike a handful of arrows is enough to turn the order round: in the brackets of the first 2013 World Cup stage the higher-ranked archer usually wins, and the upsets show up mainly around ranks 32 and 56, where the bracket brings together archers with close qualification ranks. A 2016 model, checked against 182 major international competitions, reaches the same conclusion by calculation, that with close levels and moderate scores the stronger archer has only a small advantage, and a 2024 analysis of more than six thousand ends finds that the ratio between the two archers' qualification scores is the variable that weighs most on the last arrow of a set. Nobody, however, has counted upsets with a stated definition, and the 2013 study shows that conditions matter too: at the World Championships, with gusts above 20 m/s, roughly the top twenty qualifiers held on in recurve, while in compound many low-ranked archers finished high up, which means upsets between archers far apart in the rankings. That is why the status is contested: the direct evidence is a reading of the graphs in a single study, and it points two ways.claim:sorprese-scontri-diretti:revision:2026-09-09:3Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:00:00 GMT https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/upsets-head-to-head-matchesclaim:sorprese-scontri-diretti:new_claim:2026-08-26:contestatoWed, 26 Aug 2026 08:00:00 GMT