https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/mind/self-confidence-and-score Changes to this claim in Matteo Campagna's evidence registry: its status, its year-by-year history, revisions of the page. en-gb https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/mind/self-confidence-and-scoreConfidence goes with the score in nearly every study that puts the two side by side, but always in the same weak form: they are measured together and correlated. The earliest figure, 188 American archers of every level, finds confidence among the very few psychological measures that move with the yearly average, r = 0.32, while anxiety and attentional styles stay put. The firmest figure comes from the Chinese national squad: in 61 archers, sport confidence reported a week before a competition is linked to an index adding up the result of that competition and the technical grade already reached, with a total effect of 0.57. The other coefficients are large but fragile: 0.70 in fifteen archers at a training centre, 0.56 in twenty compound archers, and an 88 per cent of variance explained in twelve high-school archers that, with twelve people and a single predictor, cannot be taken at face value. In eighty Indian juniors measured before a national championship the link is there but weak, 0.24, and it disappears when men and women are taken separately. It breaks in two places. In those same twenty compound archers, moving from the correlation to a comparison between the top ten and the bottom ten makes the difference disappear; and in thirty-nine beginners, reported confidence did not predict the score: a weak null result in a questionable venue, but one that runs against the claim. Nobody has measured confidence before and score afterwards across several competitions of the same archer, and nobody has tried raising it to see whether the points follow: that is why it stays reported.claim:fiducia-punteggio:revision:2026-09-19:3Sat, 19 Sep 2026 08:00:00 GMT https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/mind/self-confidence-and-score#storiaIn fifteen archers at a provincial training centre, confidence correlates with the average of their training scores at 0.70. The sample is tiny, everything is collected in the same period, and recurve scores at seventy metres sit together with compound scores at fifty. The study that weighs most, eighty junior recurve archers with the qualification round of a national championship as the outcome, finds a weak link, r = 0.244, which disappears when men and women are taken separately, and it is in a journal with questionable editorial standards. Two more associations in the usual direction, none following the same archer across several competitions: reported.claim:fiducia-punteggio:history_entry:2026-09-15:2026Tue, 15 Sep 2026 08:00:00 GMT https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/mind/self-confidence-and-score#storiaThis is where the claim cracks, and it does so inside one sample. In twenty Malaysian compound archers, confidence before the trial correlates with the fifty-metre score, r = 0.56, but the comparison between the top ten and the bottom ten does not reach significance, 16.4 against 13.6. It is not an independent contrary study, since these are the same twenty archers, so the status does not fall to contested: it stays reported with one more limitation. The same year, in a journal with questionable editorial standards, thirty-two Malaysian juniors training at home during the COVID-19 isolation give a weak correlation in the usual direction, r = 0.36. Added to this, as context from another sport, confidence can be raised by eight weeks of psychological skills training in five junior pistol shooters, although the score was not an outcome of that study.claim:fiducia-punteggio:history_entry:2026-09-15:2023Tue, 15 Sep 2026 08:00:00 GMT https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/mind/self-confidence-and-score#storiaThe year brings three things and the picture opens in two directions. Two papers from the same Malaysian group, on thirty-two and fifty young archers, find the better-shooting group higher on nearly every mental skill, confidence and motivation included, with freedom from worry the only exception; but the score itself goes into the grouping that is then compared, and the differences sit in the plots with no test. A third paper from the same group reanalyses the same fifty archers with another classifier and finds the same pattern: it is the same sample, not a confirmation. On the other side, in thirty-nine Turkish beginners reported confidence does not predict where the arrows land: a weak null result, in a venue with questionable editorial standards, and it does not overturn the picture. Cross-sectional associations on one side and a null result on the other: evidence on archers pointing both ways, weak on both, which is contested.claim:fiducia-punteggio:history_entry:2026-09-15:2018Tue, 15 Sep 2026 08:00:00 GMT https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/mind/self-confidence-and-score#storiaEight archers from the Italian Olympic squad, interviewed before Atlanta 1996, put positive expectations, with confidence first, among the mental conditions needed to shoot well. It tells us how champions see it, but it sets nothing against a score and does not compare them with weaker archers: the evidence is still the 1986 study, and the status stays reported.claim:fiducia-punteggio:history_entry:2026-09-15:1998Tue, 15 Sep 2026 08:00:00 GMT https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/mind/self-confidence-and-scoreclaim:fiducia-punteggio:new_claim:2026-08-15:riportatoSat, 15 Aug 2026 08:00:00 GMT