https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/technique/experts-less-variability Changes to this claim in Matteo Campagna's evidence registry: its status, its year-by-year history, revisions of the page. en-gb https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/technique/experts-less-variabilityIn the comparison between experts and beginners the direction is not in doubt. In 15 archers measured with electromyography, the Olympians repeated the same muscle pattern on 92% of shots, the national-level archers on 41%, the beginners on none; in 28 Chinese archers the variability of activation during the draw is around 10% in the experts and 21% in the beginners on most of the muscles measured; among high-school kyudo practitioners the elbow position changes between two shots by seven tenths of a millimetre in a third-year practitioner and by more than thirty millimetres in a beginner. Variability does fall, then, but three things stop the matter being settled. First, these are all comparisons between different groups measured once, in tiny samples and often with no statistical test: nobody has followed the same archers while they learned. Second, the fall does not cover everything: in that same Chinese sample the consistency of activation while aiming and of elbow angles does not distinguish the levels, and on two measures of movement complexity the experts come out less regular rather than more. Third, among archers who are already skilled the picture turns over: as early as 1990, in eight elite and good county-standard archers, the consistency of posture at release did not separate the two groups; among elite archers the consistency of the movement does not separate arrows in the 10 ring from the rest, and the precision with which positions are reproduced does not say who is best. What falls, then, is not variability in general: it is the variability of what matters for where the arrow goes.claim:esperti-meno-variabilita:revision:2026-10-10:3Sat, 10 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMT https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/technique/experts-less-variability#storiaThree independent groups put figures on it in the same year, and not all in the same direction. In fifteen archers from the United States national squad the coefficient of variation of the muscle pattern at release is 16 per cent within the same archer and 52 between different archers: each one repeats himself, none resembles the others. In fifteen Belgian archers at three levels, patterns identical from shot to shot run at 92 per cent in the Olympians, 41 in the national-level archers and none in the beginners, and in the Olympians arrow speed is steadier too at the same mean speed. It is all cross-sectional and on tiny samples, and the remaining variability does not disappear: it moves, because in the Olympians it is all in the bow arm's brachioradialis and in the beginners in the trapezius. The third comparison looks higher up: among eight archers who were already skilled, elite against good county standard, the consistency of posture at release does not distinguish the levels, and the distance between bow and elbow actually varies more in the elite archers. It compares two high levels rather than experts with beginners, on a smaller sample than the two in favour: the status stays at reported, with the first sign that beyond a certain level consistency stops separating archers.claim:esperti-meno-variabilita:history_entry:2026-09-11:1990Fri, 11 Sep 2026 08:00:00 GMT https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/technique/experts-less-variabilityclaim:esperti-meno-variabilita:new_claim:2026-08-07:riportatoFri, 07 Aug 2026 08:00:00 GMT